Sunday, September 28, 2008

Newcastle Utd

A club in real meltdown it seems. The owner is being hounded to sell out after the fans have turned on him for undermining Keegan. Keegan has deserted rather than try and get better conditions to work under - even though I agree with his stance, it does feel like he quit the club a little too easily.

Meanwhile Kinnear is appointed, who hasn't managed for a good few years. Probably not a bad manager in his day but this surely has to be too difficult a task. He was second choice after Venables who was not keen on a short term contract measured in games.

It is hard to think of worse conditions. As for the players they are still getting paid, are usually fairly resilient to instability - after all they are contractors not permanent fixtures. But this level of disruption even has got through to pitch level. All very sad for what is a great footballing region.

Banking crisis - it gets worse

Another bank fails in the UK, this really is a massive clearout. The US cash injection into the markets still is not guaranteed, there is talk of a large fall on the markets next week if it does not materialise.

We could face years of tight credit markets, the financial institutions have done massive harm here and there is a strange expectation of bail out. Those at the bottom of the pile must be thinking it is one rule for them and one rule for the rest.

In some ways this is the sharp correction we all secretly knew was coming, the only ironic thing is that it is such a big correction it is taking the banks that made bad lending decisions with it. Maybe global debt markets were not such a good idea after all.

Friday, September 19, 2008

Banking Crisis

A week that books will be written about. Much worse than 1987 and 1992, not quite the 1930s though (well let's hope not).

The US goverment bail outs are now happening and this seems to have bouyed the markets both sides of the Atlantic. The money involved seems incomprehensible. The focus is clearly on retail banks, investment banks will probably be allowed to go to the wall.

Lessons learned, short term profiteering, reliance on a bonus culture, the house rise bubble - we' re in for a tough 2 or 3 years ahead from this point.

Tuesday, September 2, 2008

Housing Market

The UK government has finally laid the cards on the table with their measures to support the falling housing market. Stamp duty threshold rise, loans, and help against repossessions.

I'm not sure what to make of it, the previous housing market slump of the early to mid 90s was a factor in the Tory loss in 1997 - Labour could be thinking of that. It is probably not a good idea to overly support a market which has risen for too long and before it started looking like a slide they were always keen on seeing the market top out and fall back gently.

But this time round there is an added twist, the banks have screwed down lending - having been caught out themselves. It's probably the biggest factor here - getting a mortgage is now much harder, it does not matter that you will not get taxed on the purchase.

Football Economics

The lower divisions of English football may have had their recession after the collapse of ITV Digital - but the premiership shows no signs of having less money spent on it.

Man City now enter the big spender league with an owner with hundreds of millions to spend. I'm sure the fans will enjoy the ride no matter what happens - even if most of them have no idea who their owner really is.

Keegan quitting Newcastle today was also a sign that he knows there's no competing with the sides with good backing.

I know one thing though, not all these clubs can finish top or win honours this year - someone is going to be disappointed.